Jun 17, 2024
3-Part Episode
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics.
Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition.
Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community
0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment
0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment
1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment
4:09: VP segment begins
8:43: 2028 considerations
18:13: Campbell segment begins
22:55: Expertise and prediction
28:10: Interview with Munn begins
28:45: The importance of in-person events
29:00: Manifest's origins
30:46: The political gambling community
32:11: Transitioning from an online community
34:04: How to organize the forecasting community
36:05: University clubs
37:06: Reluctance to organize events
38:15: EA Global
40:59: Low bar to community-building
Bet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.
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