Aug 31, 2024
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court
Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment
0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment
2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada
3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida
6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins
6:29: Jones Day
9:13: Joshua Sterling
10:50: Yaakov Roth
11:14: Amanda Rice
11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument
14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument
14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets
15:35: Factual errors
16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter
19:51: Attendees at the Hearing
21:08: Importance of legal arguments
22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi
23:11: Segment with Whitley begins
23:34: The Triple Package
24:09: Mormon influence in politics
25:11: Protestant alliances
25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012
26:19: High-achieving minority groups
27:02: Cuban-Americans
29:31: Mormons moving left
35:27: Utah housing affordability
36:29: Federal lands in Utah
37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah
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Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/
Markets Referenced
Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Arizona Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129552556
Arizona Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129686645
AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r/az-06-election-engel-d-vs-ciscomani-r?tid=1725129720295
AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): https://polymarket.com/event/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r/az-01-election-shah-d-vs-schweikert-r?tid=1725129749517
Nevada Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129799530
Nevada Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129834707
Utah Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129848259
Utah Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129890027
Utah Governor Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/utah-governor-election-winner?tid=1725129905105
Florida Presidential Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-presidential-election-winner?tid=1725129967776
Florida Senate Election Winner: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1725129994668
Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469