Jan 13, 2025
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate.
Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik...
Jan 10, 2025
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments.
Timestamps
0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments
1:18: Call to support SSG
2:16: Golden Modelos
2:58: Intro ends
4:59: Trump segment begins
7:12: Trump's strategy
7:35: 4-D Chess?
25:45:...
Dec 31, 2024
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling.
Timestamps
2:04: Appreciating the political betting community
2:42: Golden Modelos 2024
Dec 17, 2024
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure.
Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits...
Nov 10, 2024
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC.
Timestamps
0:00: Introduction begins
0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets
0:31: Victory for Polymarket
1:53: Kalshi legal...