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Star Spangled Gamblers

Jan 30, 2025

Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds

Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro

0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation

2:03: Hegseth's confirmation

3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy...


Jan 18, 2025

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.

Timestamps

1:49: Intro ends

3:55: Interview begins

4:08: Crane's bio

8:50: Nate Silver

10:42: Critique of Silver's model

12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets

23:57: Silver as tout

25:04: Silver's model

27:48: Simulations in Silver's model

30:51:...


Jan 13, 2025

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate.

Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees.

Timestamps

0:00: Pratik...


Jan 10, 2025

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments.

Timestamps

0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments

1:18: Call to support SSG

2:16: Golden Modelos

2:58: Intro ends

4:59: Trump segment begins

7:12: Trump's strategy

7:35: 4-D Chess?

25:45:...