Jan 30, 2025
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds
Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro
0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation
2:03: Hegseth's confirmation
3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy...
Jan 18, 2025
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model.
Timestamps
1:49: Intro ends
3:55: Interview begins
4:08: Crane's bio
8:50: Nate Silver
10:42: Critique of Silver's model
12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets
23:57: Silver as tout
25:04: Silver's model
27:48: Simulations in Silver's model
30:51:...
Jan 13, 2025
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate.
Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik...
Jan 10, 2025
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments.
Timestamps
0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments
1:18: Call to support SSG
2:16: Golden Modelos
2:58: Intro ends
4:59: Trump segment begins
7:12: Trump's strategy
7:35: 4-D Chess?
25:45:...